Neuroforecasting
Psych 24N-01 (3 units, letter grade)
M 2:30-5:30 PM
01/06/20-03/13/20
Online (canvas.stanford.edu)
Prerequisites: First-year seminar (instructor consent).
Brian Knutson, PhD
Psychology & Neuroscience
Bldg 420, Room 470
Email: knutson'at'stanford.edu
https://stanford.edu/~knutson
Office Hours: W 2:00-3:30 PM (book through rschumm'at'stanford.edu)
This seminar explores whether brain activity can be used not only to predict the choices of individuals, but also to forecast the behavior of separate groups of individuals in the future (e.g., in markets). Questions include how neuroforecasting might be possible, whether it can add value to other forecasting tools (e.g., traditional measures like behavioral choice and subjective ratings), and when it might extend to different aggregate scenarios. The course is ideal for students with interdisciplinary interests who would like to extend neural predictions about individual choice to group choice, and who plan to apply this knowledge in their future research.
(readings are linked to the syllabus below)
Classes 1-2 provide minimal background in neuroscience and psychology.
Classes 3-7 include discussion of relevant research and findings.
Class 8 focuses on students' research presentations of proposed projects.
Date | Theme | Readings |
21.06.21 | Defining Neuro | Defining Forecasting | Samanez-Larkin & Knutson (2015) (pp. 279-280) | Walonick (1993) / Clements et al (2002) |
21.06.28 | Data Acquisition | Data Analysis | Kable (2012) | Dawes (1979) / Yarkoni & Westfall (2017) |
21.07.05 | (Independence Day) | -- |
21.07.12 | Superforecasting | Prediction with physiology | Mellers et al (2015) | Schoemaker & Tetlock (2016) | Wang & Minor (2008) |
21.07.19 | Prediction with FMRI | Ariely & Berns (2010) | Knutson et al (2007) / Tusche et al (2010) |
21.07.26 | Forecasting with EEG | Hakim & Levy (2018) | Telpaz & Levy (2015) / Barnett & Cerf (2017) |
21.08.02 | (BK out) | -- |
21.08.09 | Forecasting with FMRI | Berkman & Falk (2013) | Falk et al (2012) / Scholz et al (2017) / Genevsky et al (2017) |
21.08.16 | Potential & limits | Ethics | Knutson & Genevsky (2018) | Venkatraman et al (2015) / Tong et al (2020) | Varan et al (2015) |
21.08.23 | Summary | Presentations |
Notes (30) / Critique (10) | 40% |
Outline (10) / Presentation (5) / Proposal (25) | 40% |
Attendance (10) / Attention (10) | 20% |