What Can We Learn About the Impact of Proposition 227

What Can We Learn About the Impact of Proposition 227 from SAT-9 Scores?

An Analysis of Results from 2000.

Jennifer Evelyn Orr, Yuko Goto Butler, Michele Bousquet, and Kenji Hakuta

Stanford University

August 15, 2000

with a PostScript on Oceanside and Californians Together Report, updated August 27, 2000

Statewide scores for LEP student performance on the Stanford 9 (SAT-9) test for the year 2000 were released on August 15. The results are of particular interest to those who have followed the impact of Proposition 227, a ballot initiative spearheaded by Ron Unz and passed by California voters in 1998. Last year's SAT-9 results enabled a comparison of the results from 1998 and 1999, and were examined to identify the results of Proposition 227. Scrutiny of the year 2000 SAT-9 results for LEP students continues in this webpage. Ron Unz provides a comprehensive list of media coverage on the release of the 2000 scores at http://www.onenation.org/news.html.

Background from the 1999 Analysis

Increases in LEP scores during the 1998-1999 period was touted by proponents of 227 as validation of the English-only approach. Unz declared early victory through his website. Meanwhile, a quick analysis by Hakuta and his colleagues at Stanford revealed the following problems with the conclusion that Proposition 227 led to increases in SAT-9 scores:

SAT-9 scores increased just as much in some school districts that retained bilingual education.
SAT-9 scores increased in school districts that never had bilingual education, and therefore were not impacted by Proposition 227.
SAT-9 scores rose for both LEP students and native English speakers. In fact, the rise for native English speakers from poor performing schools was dramatic and larger than for LEP students

Our analysis argued that the pattern of scores did not provide a basis for a resounding claim to victory for Proposition 227. Scores rose for all students, and in no clear pattern that could be attributable to Proposition 227. Click here for the previous paper.

Extension to the Data from 2000

Table 1 shows data for reading, math, and language scores for LEP students, and for all students. The table shows data from 1998, 1999 and 2000. Columns in red between the years show change in percentile rank, and the last column shows the change from 1998 to 2000. There are virtually identical patterns of increases for both LEP and for all students, with the increases being most prominent in the earlier grades, especially Grades 2 and 3.

Additional follow-up was made of the same random sample of schools that was used for last year's analysis, in which we looked at performance of 3rd grade students who were low-achieving LEP and non-LEP students. In order to make this comparison, we selected schools that had overall low performance in reading, for both LEP and non-LEP students. Specifically, for non-LEP students, we identified schools in which there were fewer than 3% LEP students, but in which the average National Percentile Rank score was low (<27th percentile) in Reading for 1998. We then tracked the changes in these schools for 1999, and now into 2000. For the LEP students, we randomly sampled 26 schools that had high proportions of LEP students (>80%), and who had low reading scores in SAT-9 for 1998 (<10th percentile). We also traced the changes in these schools for 1999, and now into 2000. Tracking student performance in these schools is arguably the cleanest comparison of LEP and non-LEP students in low-reading schools allowable by these data.

The results are shown graphically in Figures 1-6. As the bold lines (indicating the median percentile rank) show, there are clear increases in reading, math and language across the three years for both LEP and non-LEP native English speakers in schools with low reading scores. Again, as in the statewide statistics, the increased performance on SAT-9 seems to be across the board. Statistically-minded readers will be interested in noting the clear regression effects that can be seen in the data from 1998 to 1999, since the schools were all selected for their low reading scores.

Finally, we revisited the school districts that we highlighted last year. Our analysis for 1998-1999 showed across-the-board increases across different districts that reportedly

never had bilingual programs and therefore were not impacted by Proposition 227 (Evergreen, Magnolia, Westminster, Orange Unified)
had bilingual programs, but switched to Proposition 227 (Oceanside), and
retained bilingual programs to varying degrees (Santa Ana, Vista, Ocean View).

Examination of these data show a continued trend in that direction, with overall increases, especially visible in Grades 2 and 3. It is noteworthy that the increases are visible just as much in math as it is in reading and language.

What is responsible for these patterns in increased SAT-9 scores for LEP students? Extreme caution is needed from giving them too much meaning for two main reasons:

the SAT-9 was developed to distinguish academic achievement among native speakers of English, and it is not a measure of English language development for LEP students (such a measure, finally, is being developed by the state of California, to measure progress of LEP students in learning English as a second language); and

even for native speakers of English, the low end of the score distribution is more poorly measured by the test (i.e., tests are designed to make fine discriminations between students who score in the middle part of the bell-shaped distribution where most students perform, and far less to distinguish extreme high and low performance) so the scores themselves are subject to noisy measurement and bouncing around of scores -- witness the wild fluctuations in Figures 1-6.

Further, we do know that the SAT-9 is being taken more seriously across school districts, especially with its use in the API, and we know from the experience of testing policies in other states that the first several years of a testing program show increases as the system becomes familiar with the new test.

In addition to the inadequacy of the information from SAT-9 for LEP students, we really don't have very much information about what actual change came about as a result of Proposition 227. During the past few years, there has been an enormous focus on school reform in California. An increased focus on English language development, precipitated by various school reform initiatives including Proposition 227, might be one candidate explanation, both in English-only and in bilingual education programs (which, contrary to popular views, do devote substantial effort in teaching English as a second language). But there could be many others.

We certainly should be happy that the educational system and the public are paying more attention to the academic progress of immigrant students, but this should only be considered a warm-up act in accountability and school reform if we wish to seriously address their many needs.

PostScript on Oceanside and Californians Together Report (August 27, 2000)

[Yuko Goto Butler and Michele Bousquet conducted the analyses provided below]

After we finalized this report, a report was released by Californians Together, an advocacy group for bilingual education. (Click here for pdf version of the report). That report highlighted the SAT-9 scores in 10 elementary schools that had large enrollments of LEP students, and with what it claims "offer substantial bilingual instruction with adequate materials and with qualified teachers for Spanish speaking English learners." The report further compared those results with "three schools that have been highlighted by proponents of Proposition 227 as good examples where school district and community preferences have limited instruction exclusively to structured English immersion." The report concludes that bilingual schools "can equal or exceed the performance in English of schools providing instruction only in English."

The Californians Together report does not provide data on percentile ranks that are consistent with the way in which we have chosen to report data in our analyses. We therefore went back to the schools named in their analyses -- 10 schools that are designated as exemplary bilingual, and three that have been included because they have been the focus of pro-English immersion advocacy (including one in Oceanside with a high proportion of LEP students) -- and we downloaded data from the SDE website on percentile ranks for the mean NCE for each school. In addition, because Oceanside has been the focus of such intense interest as a key success by Proposition 227 advocates, we downloaded data for each school in Oceanside, to begin examining school-level performance of LEP students on SAT-9.

On this postscript, we provide the following three observations:

We verify, looking at overall SAT-9 reading scores for the schools named in the Californians Together report, that indeed the schools judged to be providing substantial bilingual instruction on average exceeded the performance of the named English-only schools. This claim can be examined by opening this Excel workbook. The following features are apparent from this analysis: (1) in these schools, as in others, the gains are clearly more evident in 2nd grade than in 3rd; (2) there is a clear variability in scores from school to school even within the program labels given (that is, schools that are "bilingual" vary, as do the schools that are "English-immersion"); and (3) of these schools chosen, the bilingual schools are superior.

We look more closely at data from the Oceanside schools. Detailed data from the schools can be inspected in this Excel Workbook - we have just scratched the surface of the data, but again, cursory perusal shows considerable variability from school to school. We plotted the SAT-9 reading data for LEP 2nd and 3rd graders (excluding schools with very low LEP enrollments -- Stuart Mesa, Santa Margarita, North Terrace, and Ivey Ranch), and the trends are again readily observable. Click here for these graphs. Clearly, there is school variability in Oceanside, and, just as in the statewide patterns and in the Californians Together dataset, there are striking differences in the patterns for 2nd and 3rd graders.

This is perhaps our most important observation: we look at the Oceanside pattern in the context of the bilingual school data provided by Californians Together. [Click here for a Powerpoint or pdf version of the graphs. If neither of these work, try jpeg format: 2nd Grade, 3rd Grade.] The graphs, for Grades 2 and 3 reading, show that the much-noted rise in Oceanside scores are indeed not that different from the patterns of increases that can be found in many bilingual schools. In this case, where comparisons are made with the schools highlighted by Californians Together that use bilingual education, there is nothing much at all remarkable about Oceanside.

These observations simply serve to reinforce our initial observations about the limitations of the SAT-9 data for drawing conclusions about the effects of Proposition 227.