The Labor Market Four Years Into the Crisis: Assessing Structural Explanations

  • Author: Jesse Rothstein
  • Date: May 5, 2012
Four years after the beginning of the Great Recession, the labor market remains historically weak. Many observers have concluded that "structural" impediments to recovery bear some of the blame. This paper reviews such structural explanations. I find that there is little evidence supporting these hypotheses, and that the bulk of the evidence is more consistent with the hypothesis that continued poor performance is primarily attributable to shortfalls in the aggregate demand for labor.
 

Age Disparities in Unemployment and Reemployment during the Great Recession and Recovery

  • Authors: Richard W. Johnson, Barbara A. Butrica
  • Date: June 6, 2012
The surge in unemployment that accompanied and followed the Great Recession - the economic downturn that began in December 2007 and lasted until June 2009 - did not spare either younger or older workers. Nonetheless, age affected how workers fared during the slowdown. Layoffs were less common among older workers who had many years of service with their employers than among their younger counterparts who had less seniority, but older adults took longer to find work when they lost their jobs. Wage losses were especially steep for unemployed workers in their fifties who became reemployed.
 

State-Local Pension Costs: Pre-Crisis, Post-Crisis, and Post-Reform

  • Authors: Alicia H. Munnell, Jean-Pierre Aubry, Anek Belbase, Joshua Hurwitz
  • Date: February 2, 2013
State and local governments have been facing an extraordinarily difficult fiscal environment in recent years. One of many challenges has been restoring public pension plans to a sound fiscal footing after the economic crisis of 2007-09. States have begun to respond by enacting a mix of revenue increases and benefit cuts. These changes will, over time, improve the financial outlook for plans and help ease their impact on other budget priorities. This study analyzes the nature and magnitude of these effects by analyzing pension costs before the financial crisis, after the financial crisis, and after reforms for a sample of 32 plans in 15 states. The results show that most of the sample plans responded with significant pension reforms, generally increasing employee contributions and lowering benefits for new employees; the changes were largest for plans with serious underfunding and those with generous benefits; in most cases, reforms fully offset or more than offset the impact of the financial crisis on the sponsors’ annual required contribution; and employer contributions to accruing benefits for new employees were cut in half, sharply lowering compensation for future workers. In short, states have made more changes than commonly thought. Whether these changes stick or not is an open question.
 

Recession, Religion, and Happiness, 2006-2010

  • Authors: Michael Hout, Orestes P. Hastings
  • Date: December 12, 2012
The General Social Survey panel of 2006-2010 tracked Americans' reactions to the election of Barack Obama and the Great Recession (officially lasting from December 2007 to March 2009) as well as to events in their personal lives. Americans were less happy in 2010 than in 2006; the percent "very happy" decreased by four percentage points and the percent "not too happy" increased almost as much. In the cross section, standard predictors - including church attendance, family income, and marital status - continued to matter. Looking from the dynamic perspective of the panel study, though, we see that job loss and changing family incomes mattered far more. Changes in marital status were also important for changing morale; marrying made people happier while divorcing made them unhappy. The subjective sense that finances were improving mediated a significant portion of the income-happiness association. The effects of unemployment and marriage are estimated in a way that supports the inference that finding a job or a mate actually causes happiness to increase.
 

Immigrants Equilibriate Local Markets: Evidence from the Great Recession

  • Authors: Brian C. Cadena, Brian K. Kovak
  • Date: July 7, 2013
This paper demonstrates that low-skilled Mexican-born immigrants' location choices in the U.S. respond strongly to changes in local labor demand, and that this geographic elasticity helps equalize spatial di fferences in labor market outcomes for low-skilled native workers, who are much less responsive. We leverage the wage rigidity that occurred during Great Recession to identify the severity of local downturns, and our results confi rm the standard fi nding that high-skilled populations are quite geographically responsive to employment opportunities while low-skilled populations are much less so. However, low-skilled immigrants, primarily those from Mexico, respond even more strongly than high-skilled native-born workers. These results are robust to a wide variety of controls, a pre-recession falsi cation test, and two instrumental variables strategies. A novel empirical test reveals that natives living in cities with a substantial Mexican-born population are insulated from the e ffects of local labor demand shocks compared to those in cities with few Mexicans. The reallocation of the Mexican-born workforce among these cities reduced the incidence of local demand shocks on low-skilled natives' employment outcomes by more than 40 percent.
 

Intimate Partner Violence in the Great Recession

  • Authors: Daniel Schneider, Kristen Harknett, Sara McLanahan
  • Date: October 10, 2013
In the United States, the Great Recession has been marked by severe negative shocks to labor market conditions. In this study, we combine longitudinal data from the Fragile Families and Child Wellbeing Study with Bureau of Labor Statistics data on local area unemployment rates to examine the relationship between adverse labor market conditions and intimate partner violence between 1999 and 2010. We find that rapidly worsening labor market conditions are associated with increases in the prevalence of violent/controlling behavior in marriage. These effects are most pronounced among whites and those with at least some post-secondary education. Worsening economic conditions significantly increase the risk that white mothers and more educated mothers will be in violent/controlling marriages rather than high quality marital unions.