What Can We Learn About the Impact of Proposition 227 from SAT-9 Scores?

Kenji Hakuta

Well, this is it! With today's release (8/29/02) of the 2002 test results, we have come to the final episode of the use of SAT-9 in California to track student performance, and to make what we can of it to draw conclusions about the impact of Proposition 227. Next year, we begin with a new test, an entirely new episode.

The 2002 results provide no new information with respect to English Learners. If their scores are grouped as a separate category, due to the fact that they are by definition limited in their English proficiency, they will have low scores especially in English reading (this is not rocket science). When they become proficient in English, they are no longer classified as English learners, so these students who would bring up the English reading scores are automatically reclassified out of this group, and therefore the scores will remain low. Since the state data do not carry any "memory" and therefore cannot track individual students over time, such as how long they have been in California schools, we really cannot draw any inferences about the long-term educational outcomes for these students as they move from being "English Learners" to "Fluent English Proficient". The testing and data system really needs an overhaul, and hopefully the new system will be more responsive to tracking the progress of English Learners.

Unlike previous years, I am really not going to post any new information. The only thing I did was to updated by hand last year's figures looking at the "Oceanside miracle". Click here to look at the graphs for the 2nd and 3rd grade READING and MATH scores. As background, please read last year's opinion about Oceanside below. This year's data is completely consistent with last year's conclusion: that Oceanside during the period of 1998 to 2000 showed an increase in SAT-9 scores mainly because (1) they started out very low in 1998, and (2) a large number of students who had become proficient in English were kept in the "English Learner" category during their period of gain. Plotted against statewide averages, the data still show that progress in Oceanside stalled in 2001. In 2002, Oceanside still remains dead average in comparison to the rest of the state. If you would like to plot the numbers yourself, you can either go directly to the state website, or look at my spreadsheet.

I do not think that the new data warrant further analysis, and am grateful that this SAT-9 circus has come to an end!!!

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An opinion about the 2001 scores from Oceanside. Note: I have decided against further detailed analysis of the state scores this year, primarily because the lackluster performance of Oceanside this year resulted in utter silence from Prop 227 advocates, and therefore did not merit a counter-analysis as it did in the previous years. As earlier commentaries indicate, I do not believe the SAT-9 to be the right instrument with which to be tracking the progress of EL students, and therefore am relieved this year not to have to buy into its currency. However, the dramatic stall in Oceanside, along with the silence from Unz, caused me to write (en route to a vacation in Hawaii) this op-ed commentary. More on Oceanside, including a response to Ron Unz's erroneous assertions and new powerpoint graphs displaying the stall at Oceanside (Sept. 1, 2001).