IGNATIUS DONNELLY
AND THE END OF THE WORLD:
llow me to begin
by asking you this question: do you worry about the stock
market? About the growing eccentricity of the weather?
About new plagues like AIDS?
You have come to the right place. Relax your mind of these
unbearable tensions and follow what I say. I shall begin by transporting
your hearts and minds to a certain wood in the north of fabled California,
to a particular creek called San Francisquito, running like a green ribbon
through the town of Palo Alto, a place where we may shed the clothing of
our public selves, finding there tongues in trees, books in the running
brooks, and good in everything.[1]
This
San Francisquito Creek, (so called by forty six year old Gaspar de Portola
when his miserable party of soldiers first came upon it in November, 1769),
rises in a bank of white clouds that hangs like a giant unbroken wave of
surf, its base pierced by pointed firs and stately redwood groves that
cover the mountainous spine of the San Francisco Peninsula between the
valley of Santa Clara and the Pacific Ocean. Watered with some 40 inches
of rainfall each winter, these modest mountains are like a little piece
of Oregon, discharging springs of waters that flow across the floor of
the Santa Clara Valley below:
For mountains and high places act like a thick sponge
overhanging the earth and make the water drip through and run together
in small quantities in many places[2]
And
yet of late this creek has shown an erratic and nervous side, discharging,
on February 3 of last year, a record seven thousand cubic feet per second
of water, leaping from its banks and inundating
much of that most learned of towns, Palo Alto.
Is
this simply a manifestation of normal variability? Consider the variability
of rainfall, depicted here in for Los Angeles. Here it is clear that the
wobbly regime of the mid
19th century, which I will discuss later in connection with my book
Ragnorak,
is returning inexorably; the halycon days of your twentieth century are
dwindling in more ways than one.
And there are those who would claim that this, along with
earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and infested fruit (both literal and
metaphoric, in the case of California and San Francisco), are part of an
increasing trend of natural punishment, an impending collapse of the old
order, the rumblings of an angry god.
What
too of the increasing instability in other spheres of your lives? Consider
for example the recent behavior of the stock
market, with a price-earnings ratio soaring to dizzy and arguably unsustainable
heights of speculation? Who can doubt that we in the United States are
not subject to the same laws of financial gravity?
FOOTNOTES
[1] Wm. Shakespeare, Much Ado About
Nothing.
[2]. Aristotle, Meteorologica I, xiii,
10
[3] Photograph taken in a neighborhood
in Palo Alto the day after the record flood of February 3, 1998. The previous
damaging flood had been in 1955. See this
site for many links to the 1998 flood.
[4] Mr Donnelly favors the work on
speculative markets by Professor
Robert Shiller of MIT and Yale, from which these data for the S&P500
are drawn.
[5] Donnelly misremembers the 19th
century period of instability; it was actually in the last half of the
nineteenth century as shown on the graph and discussed by him in his comments
on Krakatoa.
The basic argument here is that the growing instability of California climate
had a precedent in the late 19th century.
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