Predicting Aggregate Choice
Psych 4N, 3 credits, Rm. 120, Bldg. 160 (Wallenberg Hall)
M 3:30-6:00 PM, 01/04/15-03/15/15
Brian Knutson, Ph.D.
Phone: 650.724.2965
Email: knutson@psych.stanford.edu
Office Hours: W 1:30-3:00 PM (email henedina@stanford.edu to book a slot)
Is prediction of group choice possible, and if so, how can it best be implemented? We'll consider interdisciplinary approaches to predicting group choice with an eye towards linking individual to the group levels of analysis. This seminar is ideal for students who aim to connect levels of predictive analysis and who plan to apply what they learn in future research. Readings will primarily be drawn from Silver's book "The Signal and the Noise" and auxiliary scientific publications. Course requirements include participation, questions from and quizzes on assigned readings, an assignment, in-class exercises, a presentation, and a report. Students should hope to learn basic concepts and skills that will improve their predictions.
Silver, N. (2012). The signal and the noise. New York: Penguin Books. (SATN)
Additional scientific readings below (TBD)
Date | Topic | Readings |
01/04/16 | The possibility of prediction | |
01/11/16 | Neuroforecasting / Analysis | Knutson & Huettel, Knutson |
01/18/16 | Holiday (MLK Day) | N/A |
01/25/16 | Politics and sports | SATN Ch. 2-3 + Buttonwood |
02/01/16 | Growth and finance | SATN Ch. 6, Ch. 11, Ch. 8 |
02/08/16 | Chess and poker | SATN Ch. 9-10 |
02/15/16 | Holiday (Presidents' Day) (Report Due) | N/A |
02/22/16 | Climate change and terrorism | SATN Ch. 12-14 |
02/29/16 | Technique comparison / Presentations (Outline Due) | Mellers et al. (2015), Genevsky et al. (2015) |
03/07/16 | BK out | N/A |
03/14/16 | (Report Due) | N/A |