MONETARY POLICY RULE
HOME PAGE
This page was put together to provide
a network for people doing research, writing, and speaking on monetary policy
rules. It has not been changed (except to update addresses and omit items that apparently
disappeared from cyberspace) since July 2000 when work on monetary policy rules
began to expand beyond the scope of one page and powerful internet tools such
as Google
and Google
Scholar began to be developed to provide similar network services, but the
page still may be of historical interest. The links are divided into six
categories.
Technical articles
Central bank and international
financial institution publications
Speeches and remarks by
monetary policy makers
Writing and research
by
financial market analysts
UK Monetary Policy 1972-97: a guide using Taylor Rules (July 2000) Edward Nelson, Bank of England
Optimal
Horizons in Inflation Targeting (July 2000) Nicoletta Batini and Edward
Nelson, Bank of
Is the Taylor Rule the same as the Friedman Rule? (June 2000) Laurian Lungu, Patrick Minford, and Naveen Srinivasan
Learning
About a Shift in Trend Output: Implications for Monetary Policy and Inflation
(June 2000) Kevin J. Lansing, Federal Reserve Bank of
Testing for the Lucas Critique: A Quantitative Investigation, (May 2000) Jesper Linde
The Performance of Simple Monetary Policy Rules in a Large Open Economy, (May 2000) Akila Weerapana
Activist Stabilization Policy and Inflation: The Taylor Rule in the 1970s, (February 2000) Athanasios Orphanides, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
Estimating a Taylor type monetary policy reaction function for the case of a small developing economy, (February 2000) Jose R. Sanchez-Jung
Indicator Variables for Optimal Policy, (February 2000) Lars E. O. Svensson and Mark Woodford
Learning About Monetary Policy Rules (January 2000) James Bullard and Kaushik Mitra,
Federal Reserve Bank of
How Should
Monetary Policy Be Conducted in an Era of Price Stability, Lars E. O.
Svensson, Federal Reserve Bank of
Challenges for
Monetary Policy: New and Old, Mervyn King, Federal Reserve Bank of
Implications of Uncertainty for Monetary Policy,
(November 1999) Geoffrey Shuetrim and Christopher Thompson, Reserve Bank of
Divergences
in the Euro Area: A Cause for Concern?, (November 1999) Nils Björksten and Miika Syrjanen, Bank of
Monetary
Policy and Asset Price Volatility, (October 1999) Ben
Bernanke and Mark Gertler
Three
Lessons for Monetary Policy in a Low Inflation Era, (September 1999) David
L. Reifschneider and John C. Williams
The Taylor and Interest Rates in
the EMU Area: A Note, (August, 1999) Stefan Gerlach and Gert Schnabel, BIS
Working Paper
The
Importance of Systematic Monetary Policy for Economic Activity, (Summer
1999) Michael Dotsey; Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of
Inflation Targeting and Output
Stabilization, (June 1999) Guy Debelle, Reserve Bank of
Recent Developments in the Analysis on Monetary Policy Rules, (June 1999) Bennett McCallum
Eurosystem Monetary Targeting: Lessons from US Data, (June 1999) Glenn D. Rudebusch and Lars E. O. Svensson
The Quest for Prosperity Without Inflation, (May 1999) Athanasios Orphanides, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The Science of Monetary Policy: A New Keynesian Perspective, (May 1999) Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, and Mark Gertler
A
Forward-Looking Monetary Policy Reaction Function, (Spring 1999) Yash
Mehra; Economic Quarterly, Federal Reserve Bank of
Monetary rules when economic behaviour changes (April 1999) Robert Amano, Don Coletti and Tiff Macklem, Bank of Canada
Optimal monetary policy rules in a rational expectations model of the Phillips curve, (April 1999) LSE working paper (dp0247) by Peter Clark, Charles Goodhart, and Haizhou Huang, Journal of Monetary Economics.
Simplicity
Versus Optimality: The Choice of Monetary Policy Rules When Agents Must
Learn (March 1999) Robert J. Tetlow and Peter von zur Muehlen, Federal
Reserve Board
Taylor
Rules in a Limited Participation Model (March 1999), Lawence J. Christiano
and Christopher J. Gust
Optimal Monetary Policy
Inertia, (March 1999) Michael Woodford
Uncertainty and
the Taylor Rule in a Simple Model of the Euro Area Economy, (February
1999) Gert Peersman and Frank Smets
Aggregate
Disturbances, Monetary Policy, and the Macroeconomy: The FRB/US Perspective,
(February 1999) D. Reifschneider, R. Tetlow, and J. C. Williams.
Monetary Policy: Recent Theory and Practice, (1998) James Tobin
The Nonlinear Phillips Curve and Inflation Forecast Targetting: Symmetric versus Asymmetric Rules, (December 1998) Eric Schalling
The Perils of Taylor
Rules, (November 1998) Jess Benhabib, Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe, and Martin
Uribe,
Output Gap Uncertainty: Does It
Matter For The Taylor Rule?, (November 1998) Frank Smets, Working Paper 60,
BIS
Robustness of Simple
Monetary Policy Rules Under Model Uncertainty, (November 1998) Andrew
Levin, Volker Wieland, and John C. Williams, in Monetary Policy Rules,
John B. Taylor (Ed).
Policy Rules for Open Economies, (October 1998) Laurence Ball in Monetary Policy Rules, John B. Taylor (Ed) NBER Working Paper W6760
Policy Rules for Inflation Targetting, (October 1998) Glenn Rudebusch and Lars Svensson in Monetary Policy Rules, John B. Taylor (Ed).
Monetary Policy with Noisy Information, (October 1998) Athanasios Orphanides
More Evidence on the Robustness of the Taylor Rule, (July 1998) Roberto Amano
Price Stability and Monetary Policy Effectiveness when Nominal Interest Rates are Bounded at Zero, (June 1998) Athanasios Orphanides and Volker Wieland
Interest-Rate Rules in an Estimated Sticky Price Model, (June 1998) Julio J. Rotemberg and Michael Woodford, with Comment by Martin Feldstein in John B. Taylor (Ed). Monetary Policy Rules
Performance of Operational Policy Rules in an Estimated Semi-Classical Structural Model, (June 1998) Bennet McCallum and Edward Nelson, Monetary Policy Rules, John B. Taylor (Ed).
Learning and the complexity of monetary policy rules, (June 1998) Robert J. Tetlow, Peter von zur Muehlen and Frederico S. Finan, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System
The effects of potential output uncertainty on the
performance of simple policy rules, (June 1998) Aaron Drew
and Benjamin Hunt, Reserve Bank of
Open Economy Inflation Targetting, (May 1998) Lars E.O. Svennson, NBER Working Paper, No. 6545.
Monetary Policy Rules Based on Real Time Data, (December 1997) Athanasios Orphanides
Monetary Policy Rules in Practice: Some International Evidence, (November 1997) Richard Clarida, Jordi Gali, Mark Gertler
Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rules, (April 1997) Bennett McCallum
Efficient Monetary Policy Rules,
(March 1997) Laurence Ball, NBER Working Paper, No. 5952.
On Policy
Rules for Price Stability, (1997) Richard Black, Tiff Macklin, David Rose
How Should
Monetary Policy Respond to Shocks While Maintaining Long Run Price Stability
John B. Taylor, in Acheiving Price Stability, Federal Reserve Bank of
Monetary
Policy Implications of Greater Fiscal Discipline, John B. Taylor, in Budget
Deficits and Debt: Issues and Options, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas
City, 1996 with Commentary
Mervyn King, Commentary
Helmut Schieber, and General
Discussion.
Discretion versus Policy Rules in Practice,
(1993) John B. Taylor
Estimation and Control of a Macroeconomic Model
with Rational Expectations, (September 1979) John B. Taylor
Central bank and international financial institution publications
The
Taylor Rule: Is It a Useful Guide to Understanding Monetary Policy? Robert L. Hetzel, Federal Reserve Bank of
Implementing Inflation Targeting in Brazil, Joel Bogdanski, Alexandre Antonio Tombini, and Sergio Ribeiro da Costa Werlang, Banco Central do Brasil. March 1st, 2000.
Taylor interest rate and Monetary Conditions Index, Deutsche Bundesbank, Monthly Report, April 1999.
How Useful are
Taylor Rules for Monetary Policy? Sharon Kozicki, Economic Review
Federal Reserve Bank of
The
Inflation-Output Variability Tradeoff and Price Level Targets Robert
Dittmar, William T. Gavin and Finn E. Kydland, Federal Reserve Bank of St.
Louis, Review, January-February 1999
Monetary
Policy Rules and Inflation Forecasts, Nicolleta Batini and Andrew
Haldane, Quarterly Bulletin, Bank of England, February 1999
How
Useful are Taylor Rules as a Guide to ECB Monetary Policies?, IMF World
Economic Outlook, 1999,
Describing Fed Behavior, John Judd and Glenn Rudebusch, Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, Dec.25, 1998
Taylor's Rule and
the Fed, John Judd and Glenn M. Rudebusch, Economic Review,
Federal Reserve Bank of
Revisionist
History: How Data Revisions Distort Economic Policy Research, David E.
Runkle, Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of
Real Time Taylor Rules and the Federal Funds Futures Market, Charles L. Evans, Economic Perspectives, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Third Quarter 1998
Has the Fed Gotten Tougher
on Inflation, Federal Reserve Bank of
Speeches and remarks by monetary policy makers
Structural Change and Monetary Policy, Laurence H. Meyer, Governor of The Federal Reserve Board, March 3, 2000
No Fixed Policy Rules for the Monetary Policy of the ECB, Otmar Issing, ECB Chief Economist, February 14, 2000
Monetary Policy: Theory in practice, Mervyn King, Deputy Governor of the Bank of England, January 7, 2000
A Stabilization Policy Strategy, Edward M. Gramlich, Governor of the Federal Reserve Board, April 22, 1999
100 Days of EMU: First Experiences and Further Perspectives, (April 1999) Eugenio Domingo Solans, Member of the Executive Board of the European Central Bank
Monetary
Policy Rules? William Poole, President, Federal Reserve Bank of
Monetary
Rules, Governor Edward M. Gramlich, Samuleson Lecture, Eastern Economic
Association, 1998
Reserve Bank
Forecasting: Should We Feel Guilty? Donald Brash, Governor of the Reserve
Bank of
The
Strategy of Monetary Policy, Governor Lawrence H. Meyer, March 16, 1998
Rules vs. Discretionary Monetary Policy, Chairman Alan Greenspan, 15th Anniversary of the Center for Economic Policy Research, 1997
Recent Economic Developments and Federal Reserve Policy, Testimony by John P. Lipsky, Prepared for Delivery to the Committee on Banking and Financial Services, House of Representatives, July 23, 1997, pp. 188-192
Remarks,
Governor Janet Yellen, March 13, 1996
Writing and research by financial market analysts
Alternative United Kingdom Economic Scenarios, Pricewaterhouse Coopers (2000)
RateWatch #148 - The Fed's Methods. Taylor Rule, (May 22, 1999) Dick Lepre, Homeowners.com
G-7 Monetary Policy Easing: Fundamental or Rhetoric? Merrill Lynch
(September 24, 1998)
EMU-11: Rates - Stable Near Term, But Up Later, Salomon Smith Barney
(May 8, 1998)
What Drives the Real Funds Rates?, Merrill Lynch (February 27, 1998)
The Conduct of U.S. Monetary Policy, Testimony by Robert V. DiClemente, Salomon Brothers, Subcommittee on Domestic and International Monetary Policy, Committee on Banking and Financial Services, House of Representatives, July 23, 1997, pp. 236-258
The Interest Rate and the Taylor Rule, HSBC Markets, US Economics Weekly, May 12, 1997
The Taylor Rule for the G7, Goldman Sachs (January 1997)
The Taylor Rule
Calculator, The Dismal Scientist
Current
setting of monetary policy rules for the United States Estimated by
the Federal Reserve Bank of
What is the
Taylor Rule? From "Ask an Economist" at the Federal Reserve Bank
of San Francisco
Explanation
of the Taylor Rule From the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis home
page
Numerical table showing simple policy rule (fits
on back of busines card)
Graph showing simple policy rule (from textbook)
Video and audio on how a monetary policy rule fits
into a textbook model of the macroeconomy (12 MB)
Video and audio on a monetary expansion (a shift
in the policy rule) that causes an inflationary boom (13 MB)
Video and audio on bust part of a boom-bust cycle
(13 MB)
Amaze Your Friends! Predict the Fed's Next Move, ( May 17,
1999), Kim
Remembering the Taylor Rule, (March 8, 1999) James Padinha, TheStreet.com
Interest Rates still flout all the rules, (July 22, 1996) Financial Times, Robert Chote,
Monetary Policy, made to measure, (August 10, 1996) The Economist