Jeff C. Hojeffho@stanford.edu
Second Floor, Department of Global Ecology
Carnegie Institution For Science
260 Panama Street
Stanford, CA, USA 94305
Jeff published another paper from his dissertation in Journal of Great Lakes Research. This is Jeff's fourth first-author paper and sixth overall. The article, entitled "Phytoplankton blooms in Lake Erie impacted by both long-term and springtime phosphorus loading", builds on his last paper which expanded the record of historical algal blooms in Lake Erie by nearly two decades.
In the new paper, Jeff and his advisor find that a simple statistical model with only two predictors (springtime and long-term phosphorus loading) explains 75% of the variability in blooms size in Lake Erie over the past 32 years. This finding upends the existing paradigm for predicting blooms in Lake Erie, suggesting that phosphorus trapped in lake sediments continues to be re-released into the lake for several years, feeding new blooms after first loading into the lake. News articles for these two papers have been published by the Carnegie Institution for Science and Landsat Science.
Statistical model predictions compared to historical bloom size from multiple sources for Lake Erie. The statistical model (sum of blue and orange regions) based on springtime (April to July Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus) and long-term (9-year Cumulative Dissolved Reactive Phosphorus) phosphorus explains 75% of the variability of the bloom measurements (green and grey bars). For more information, see figure captions in paper.