Project sponsor: Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center
Figure from Baker and Cornell, 2003
Probabilistic estimation of losses in a building due to earthquake damage is a topic of interest to decision makers and an area of active research. One promising approach to the problem, proposed by the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research (PEER) Center, involves breaking the analysis into separate components associated with ground motion hazard, structural response, damage to components and repair costs. Each stage of this method has both inherent (aleatory) randomness and (epistemic) model uncertainty, and these two sources of uncertainty must be propagated through the analysis in order to determine the total uncertainty in the resulting loss estimates. In this work, the PEER framework for seismic loss estimation is reviewed and options for both characterizing and propagating the various sources of uncertainty are proposed.
| Baker J.W. and Cornell C.A. (2008). Uncertainty Propagation in Probabilistic Seismic Loss Estimation, Structural Safety, 30 (3), 236-252. |
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| Baker J.W. (2008). Introducing correlation among fragility functions for multiple components, in 14th World Conference on Earthquake Engineering, Beijing, China. 8 pp. |
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| Baker, J.W. and Cornell, C.A. (2003). Uncertainty Specification and Propagation for Loss Estimation Using FOSM Methods. Proceedings, Ninth International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering (ICASP9). San Francisco, California: Millpress. 8p. |
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| Baker, J.W. and Cornell, C.A. (2003). Uncertainty Specification and Propagation for Loss Estimation Using FOSM Methods, PEER Technical Report 2003/07. Berkeley, California. 89p. |