  EXHIBIT 1:  STRAIGHT-LINE GROWTH DATA, LISREL EXAMPLE 

CASE  X(1)    X(3)    X(5)    W
 1   37.56   49.29   61.02   15.97
 2   45.65   51.58   57.51   15.38
 3   40.94   52.88   64.82   11.48
 4   47.36   55.45   63.54   16.89
 5   52.71   62.70   72.70   19.18
 6   30.45   46.34   62.23   11.82
 7   43.65   58.37   73.09   15.33
 8   41.16   49.26   57.37   13.21
 9   44.15   52.00   59.84   13.09
10   38.16   46.59   55.03   10.32
11   37.68   39.87   42.06   10.26
12   45.30   54.38   63.47   15.60
13   39.37   48.15   56.94   13.90
14   36.66   43.75   50.84   13.53
15   53.40   62.32   71.23   14.45
16   59.35   62.80   66.25   20.16
17   53.14   64.35   75.56   16.11
18   44.90   58.82   72.75   15.06
19   41.79   59.44   77.09   18.33
20   38.25   48.98   59.71   13.77
21   47.24   60.79   74.34   15.88
22   53.57   67.71   81.84   18.25
23   35.54   43.51   51.48   10.15
24   37.54   50.25   62.95    9.46
25   37.07   49.71   62.35   15.81
26   32.40   44.69   56.98   11.60
27   45.22   62.08   78.94   14.08
28   35.67   47.42   59.17   12.19
29   38.30   51.13   63.97   14.07
30   52.61   55.52   58.42   16.68
31   38.36   48.49   58.62   15.07
32   45.14   51.44   57.73   13.94
33   53.82   64.27   74.73   20.40
34   49.46   61.42   73.39   16.00
35   56.29   59.04   61.80   17.47
36   49.59   57.58   65.57   17.30
37   41.45   59.43   77.41   15.86
38   47.42   57.42   67.43   18.95
39   57.00   65.73   74.47   18.90
40   41.06   43.54   46.03   13.79
 
                               
Data Description.
      MEAN    MEDIAN   STDEV 
X(1)  44.16    43.90    7.24 
X(3)  54.21    53.63    7.24 
X(5)  64.27    63.21    9.24 
W     14.99    15.20    2.803 
Correlations
           X(1)     X(3)     X(5)
X(3)      0.842
X(5)      0.536    0.907
W         0.766    0.765    0.598 
Scatterplots between the X-values.
                               time 5 vs time 3
   -
   -
   -                                                    *
   -                                      2   *
 75+                                        *     2  *
   -                                    **   * **
   -
   -                           *       2        *
   -                *     ***     **     *
 60+                  * *2    *
   -             *     * *   2      *
   -                 *
   -            2
   -
 45+            *
   -     *
   -
     --------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-----
          42.0      48.0      54.0      60.0      66.0

                         time 5 vs time 1
   -
   -
   -                                            *
   -                        **    *
 75+                                  *         **    *
   -                            * *      *     **
   -
   -                       *          *   *               *
   -      *          ***           *  *              *
 60+              *   *2         *
   -         *           *  *     **           *
   -                   *
   -              * *
   -
 45+                       *
   -                  *
   -
    ----+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+-
      30.0      36.0      42.0      48.0      54.0      60.0



                         time 3 vs time 1
   -                                            *
   -                                                  *
   -                                            **
   -                              *      *     **         *
 60+                        **        *              *
   -                            * *   *   *
   -                                  *        *
   -                               *
   -                   *   *     ***
 50+                 *2     *
   -              *    2 *
   -      *            *
   -         *    * *      *
   -
 40+                  *
   -
   -
     ----+---------+---------+---------+---------+---------+
      30.0      36.0      42.0      48.0      54.0      60.0
                                    






MTB > regress X(5) 2 X(1) c3

The regression equation is
X(5) = -0.000003 - 1.00 X(1) + 2.00 X(3)

Predictor       Coef       Stdev    t-ratio        p
Constant -0.00000309  0.00000000          *        *
X(1)        -1.00000     0.00000          *        *
X(3)         2.00000     0.00000          *        *

s = 0           R-sq = 100.0%    R-sq(adj) = 100.0%

Analysis of Variance

SOURCE       DF          SS          MS         F        p
Regression    2      3330.4      1665.2         *        *
Error        37         0.0         0.0
Total        39      3330.4

SOURCE       DF      SEQ SS
X(1)          1       956.1
X(3)          1      2374.3


